[註]此文為補po
台灣的經濟數字實在不太討喜，其中景氣燈號連七藍藍路，但領先指標有持續回升，就指標做解讀即是經濟狀仍陷谷底，但已見曙光。
M1b(期底)第二個月回升(年增)，則表示五月資金動能緩慢增加，可說是相對好的狀況(因為所有人都預期到的結果，No Surprise)
美國的經濟數據意外的並不難看，許多皆是意外報喜的數字，新屋銷售意外上陽，durable goods order goes up(except military and transportion)，僅下修gdp growth 是比較負面的消息，美國的經濟負甦仍持續是目前可確知的結論！
本週市場上最觀心的就是 EU area summit 的召開，會中將就新一輪的歐債危機做出應對！
其中頭二項決議結果令市場振奮。
其一，EU將出現一個短暫的監理機構，其中將整合ECB 與ESM，可直接對抒困區之銀行’直接注資’。
二者，EU將透過EFSF對Spain進行銀行重組與抒困，而這些決議將會在細部的備忘錄做簽署。
這些條款振奮人心，但還是沒有提出具體的解決方案，Long statement, short conclusion that is useless.
有評論家評為止血帶綁一綁不代表痊癒！更何況能不能做還不知道，最後一項聲明為7/9 號將交付EU執行，能否執行尚在未定之天。
重申我的觀點，無論EU更團結or分裂，那都不會是金融市場要的重點，因為市場要的重點在不確定性之解除，代表風險的下降，
目前仍是懸而未決的狀況對市場來說一定不是好事！
EURO AREA SUMMIT STATEMENT
– 29 June 2012 –
• We affirm that it is imperative to break the vicious circle between banks and sovereigns. The
Commission will present Proposals on the basis of Article 127(6) for a single supervisory
mechanism shortly. We ask the Council to consider these Proposals as a matter of urgency
by the end of 2012. When an effective single supervisory mechanism is established,
involving the ECB, for banks in the euro area the ESM could, following a regular decision,
have the possibility to recapitalize banks directly. This would rely on appropriate
conditionality, including compliance with state aid rules, which should be institutionspecific, sector-specific or economy-wide and would be formalised in a Memorandum of
Understanding. The Eurogroup will examine the situation of the Irish financial sector with
the view of further improving the sustainability of the well-performing adjustment
programme. Similar cases will be treated equally.
• We urge the rapid conclusion of the Memorandum of Understanding attached to the
financial support to Spain for recapitalisation of its banking sector. We reaffirm that the
financial assistance will be provided by the EFSF until the ESM becomes available, and that
it will then be transferred to the ESM, without gaining seniority status.
We affirm our strong commitment to do what is necessary to ensure the financial stability of
the euro area, in particular by using the existing EFSF/ESM instruments in a flexible and
efficient manner in order to stabilise markets for Member States respecting their Country
Specific Recommendations and their other commitments including their respective
timelines, under the European Semester, the Stability and Growth Pact and the
Macroeconomic Imbalances Procedure. These conditions should be reflected in a
Memorandum of Understanding. We welcome that the ECB has agreed to serve as an agent
to EFSF/ESM in conducting market operations in an effective and efficient manner.
• We task the Eurogroup to implement these decisions by 9 July 2012.
Leave a Reply